More than a month has passed since our last update and not a lot has been happening, so there is not much to be writing about!
The situation in Kenya is slowly getting worse - when they test 1,000 people now they get about 40 cases (compared to 10 in April), and when they test 3,000 they get about 150 cases. If they tested 20,000 hey might be getting 1,000+ cases a day, but they aren't testing that many, and likely never will. So we can only presume and guess at the real numbers.
In terms of deaths, there's usually a few each day; at least deaths that are known to be caused by COVID. I suppose other people might be dying and if they aren't tested before or after they die then no-one would know if they were positive or not. I've not seen any statistics (if they even exist) of total deaths in the last few months compared to the same period last year.
I'm not sure what the strategy is. Cases are increasing, and deaths likely to. I suppose the more time it takes to peak, the more time there is to prepare hospitals, but there isn't a lot of money and so it's not like they'll ever be fully prepared (they've already had 5 months). Ultimately it may just be to try to balance the economy vs health until there is a vaccine or herd immunity. South Africa tried a lockdown, but once they lifted it (and it was one of the world's strictest lockdowns) cases started rocketing up again, so it didn't succeed in restricting the virus significantly like it did in Europe, and they couldn't keep the lockdown going much longer due to economic consequences (and the security challenges enforcing it). Obviously few people can work remotely in Africa since most people are in the informal economy, and few countries can support unemployment benefits or furloughing!
Actually there are some arguments that deaths might decrease with less drinking, less road accidents etc. There are other arguments though that people aren't going to hospitals even if they need to, and of course children aren't getting vaccinated etc, so that deaths might be higher, certainly in the medium term, even if not immediately so.
The economic impacts are of course incredibly severe for the poor and most Kenyans were poor even before the virus hit, often struggling day-to-day. The government has started employing hundreds of thousands of people in order to give them work and a salary (though it is a small salary) - they are sorting out roads, pavements, rubbish etc. There is also an enlarged cash transfer program to the very poor, but it's not a lot of money to not a lot of people, partly due to lack of funds and partly due to difficulty identifying those to support.
A lot of NGOs have stepped in, especially on the hygiene side to provide soap, water, masks etc. Some are also providing food. Meanwhile restaurants have generally reopened for eating in for lunch, and the curfew (intended to stop people drinking in small bars) now starts later; restaurants might start serving dinner soon. This can help create a few more jobs, but still flights (domestic and international) are banned destroying tourism. Domestic road transport is also heavily restricted, which also normally employs a lot of people.
Now that Europe is beginning to open up, hopefully some export industries in agriculture and the flower industry may be able to re-start. Personally I think Kenya should look to reopen tourism as soon as possible, even if cases are increasing, with testing before and after, and carefully managed charter flights to very limited spaces with tight controls and testing around the staff etc (i.e. fly to airport, bus to hotel/beach or safari camp, stay there and don't go anywhere else, then repeat to leave the country). It is likely domestic tourism will be allowed again in a couple of weeks to start.
The education sector is one of the biggest employers, and a third of the schools are private. The majority of these are not doing any online learning, and are simply closed with their staff not being paid. The government has some education classes online and on TV/radio, though only about a third of the country are using them at all. Schools are likely to reopen in September. Most of the country will have lost 6 months of learning, whilst the inequality of rich kids with good private schools who did online learning will have increased compared to poor kids.
It's quite interesting being involved in some of these discussions with government and through industry associations. It's an interesting time generally; it really is a once in a generation or once in three generations period. It hopefully will not happen again soon! It hopefully will lead to some things being better than before, and it might lead to a better society, more environmentally friendly, more focused on preventing health issues than curing/treating them, and more focused on social relationships. The question of future jobs though is one to discuss in the next blog.
