No, not in England... of course there is a storm there, whilst its sunny and warm in Germany. Typical of course, but good timing for the girls to go there!
I mean the storm in Kenya - the protests after the election. Once the official results are announced (possibly tomorrow, or over the weekend) and the opposition rejects them, will they incite protests? when the opposition go to court to argue their case (they definitely will, even if they have no chance of winning, since they need to put on a show) and they lose, will they then incite protests?
So we face uncertainly for either a few days or a few weeks or even longer, and Kenya's election will remain on the front pages globally as everyone waits to see how bad the protests and violence will get.
So far, the voting itself was peaceful and the post-voting skirmishes have been mild (caused by the opposition criticizing the unofficial and incomplete results) and the security forces are both well prepared and well responding as appropriate.
Nairobi is mostly calm and quiet as people stay at home or off the streets, just in case (though most existing protests have been in some of the Nairobi slum areas, or some of the towns in Western Kenya where the opposition is stronger, and apparently those in the slums are partly just unhappy and unemployed youth looking for an excuse to make trouble). Voting day (Tuesday) was a public holiday and most companies gave employees off at least Wednesday, and often today (Thursday) too. Civil servants have been told to report to work tomorrow as usual and most companies will be doing the same, although most retailers (supermarkets, cafes etc) reopened on Wednesday so its perfectly possible to keep a normal lifestyle going.
Whether business will return to normal soon or not is another matter...certainly the government won't be signing and contracts or issuing policies whilst things are up in the air; and whilst everyone fears for potential protests, there will be much subdued business activities and tourism. So we hope everything can be resolved fast.
As I listened to the press conference from the opposition complaining about the process (the incumbent has a large lead in the unofficial results), I almost laughed at their awful and contradictory statements, so if that is the best they can do, then they won't have much of a chance... once the paper forms (each of which was signed by the election commission at the poll center as well as representatives from the 2 main parties at each poll station to certify the tally) from each of the 40,000 poll stations are all online and added up by anyone and everyone, it will be fairly clear what the result is, irrelevant of the current unofficial results that have come from the online system. Each poll station also entered their results into the system that has been automatically adding them up) but as an online system is not seen as credible (at least by the opposition who claim hacking, strange algorithms and other things that are complete rubbish from the evidence the opposition has provided so far).
Unfortunately the opposition just does not want to accept the result and in their press conference came out with all sorts of contradictory comments and statements. It didn't help when in their letter to the electoral commission complaining about the process, they demanded their leader be declared the winner. This is before the final results are even in!
Then they provided their own results, which they claim are final, provided to them by a whistle blower inside the electoral commission, even though the commission has not even received all the results, and even while the opposition are still counting the results from the paper forms (and complaining they need more computers to access so many paper forms that have been scanned and put online)!
They of course can't provide any evidence that their numbers are correct, or identify the whistle blower as they have to protect them, and whilst they claim that the system is rigged in how it adds up the different votes, they claim their numbers (from the same system) are accurate.
Yesterday they said they had evidence of hacking, yet produced only database log files which experts say showed only 2 things: 1) someone tried to log-in and failed, and 2) the system is slow. Today they didn't mention anything about that... Maybe there are flaws, maybe there has been manipulation, but the opposition will need to do a better job of showing it. I would think if they've seen and signed the 40,000 results forms, and if they can do their sums, it can't be too controversial, even if some processes from the electoral commission were strange (e.g. making public live online votes if they are not actually official or verified from the paper versions)
So its all a little amusing on one hand, and yet, a little scary on the other hand, because the opposition clearly will do whatever they can no matter what.... (Ten years ago the complaints and protests led to the opposition getting a compromise and the Deputy President position, and some suspect the opposition is just trying to achieve the same thing again). Personally I have been impressed with the current government in charge of the security service and the electoral commission and I think everything will blow over... a few protests here and there after the results are announced and again after the opposition loses the court cases and that will be it... but in the meantime, we just hold our breath, and Kenya's economy suffers...
No comments:
Post a Comment