The Kenyan election

Consider the last 12 months of Brexit: a slow-burning mess with confusion, infighting, disagreements, personalities, court cases, votes and attempted votes (in parliament)--a divided country that mostly just wants it all to be over with and move on, no matter what the outcome.

Then take that 12 months and compress it to less than 2 months and you have the Kenyan election.

In August the original election was annulled because the court were not sure if it was well managed, and therefore had to assume it was not (i.e. the elections body could not give evidence that assured them and had made many stupid mistakes). This might have been expected with more than 40,000 poll booths, each one with at least 2 or 3 electoral officers, and all needing the relevant training, papers, and equipment despite around a quarter or so being more than 8 hours away by road (some more like 15 hours) without any internet. 

It is a poor country and one may not expect a perfect election, but some mistakes were ridiculous: a login to the IT system that was meant for all returning officers to use was created in the name of the Chairman and used 9,000 times making it seem nefarious (when in reality they should have just created a "general login" name). Some polling officers made mistakes filling in the official form at the polling station so then found any old piece of paper, wrote the results on that and sent that in (next time each polling station will have spare copies of the official results paper). The election body couldn't get its act together in time to let the court have access to its computer servers. It even announced the results based on the electronic system and without waiting to collect in all the official papers. This is just some of the issues and it's almost ridiculous, and unfortunately it was enough for the court to ask for a repeat of the election (the cost is more than $100m).

At the same time the opposition comes out with all kinds of stuff about how the election was compromised, often focusing on the IT issues knowing that the average person can't understand these and therefore must trust the opposition that there were mistakes. But also criticising every one involved from the IT company to the Internet company and much more. On the one hand they are right to ask for fair and credible elections, but on the other hand their approach, message (requiring certain changes that were possible and others that were impossible in the time frame involved) and style (protests, finger-pointing) just created a very strong divide between the two main parties as well as the election management body.

So now the parallels with Brexit. The last two months have been complete confusion. At first there were just the two main candidates, then the minor candidates were allowed in the re-run (the court intervened); the opposition party has pulled out; the leaders of the two main parties refuse to meet and when they try to have their representatives meet with the electoral commission the meetings are always cancelled, postponed or walked-out on. The CEO of the electoral commission refused to take the blame for the fiasco the first time around, though finally today he has decided, 6 days before the election, that he'll take a three-week break (which seems ridiculous, but him not being around during the poll and the results will ease the criticism from the opposition, and apparently all the planning is on track so he is not needed).

The poll is supposed to go ahead in 6 days, but right now there is only one serious party campaigning and running, whilst several local government heads (from the opposition) have refused to let the election take place. The head of the electoral committee says he is struggling to get everything together and his team is completely divided on all the key issues; one of the his key allies resigned. The government has passed new legislation just last week changing some of the electoral laws (for example stating that even if there are issues with the IT, as long as the paper forms are collected, everything is fine). 

Kenya's election in August also elected all the local governments and national government positions all in one election (unlike the US, say, where some of the House seats are only contested two years after the other seats, so there is not a complete overhaul) - but if the court found the presidential election was flawed, how were the other elections not flawed? (in theory the local election results are declared locally and so it doesn't matter about the central IT systems or the tallying of the paper forms in Nairobi) And so though the local government positions have been sworn in, most are still being disputed in the courts, even whilst they have selected their local cabinets and started getting on with things.

Meanwhile it seems most of the country is not even more divided than they were before, with the opposition supporters now believing everything is rigged, and having had first weekly, then almost daily protests, in several cities. Business ground to a halt months ago as there is so much uncertainty no-one can plan for anything--will this election go ahead and if so, will the court end up requiring it to be re-run again? how much violence will there be? who will be in government? when will the new government be confirmed? The economy is slowing down, money is being spent on new elections, all attention back on elections instead of governing.

Elections in Kenya were always about tribe and basically this election was the west and east of the country on one side (the opposition) and the central and north of the country on the other side (the governing party). Many of the youth and the poor (in the slums) are squarely on the side of the opposition- promises of something better of course and less corruption, whether realistic or not. Many others doubt corruption would change no matter who wins. So there are lots of promises from both sides, but especially the opposition's seem unrealistic.

So we may have a presidential election in 6 days, maybe with only one main candidate running, who if he wins will then not be seen as credible (in my parallel to Brexit a margin of 2% is hardly enough of a margin to convince anyone) and thus the country will continue to be divided, there will be protests and constant claims of illegitimacy... just think of the two-year "transition period" of Brexit. It still won't resolve anything and life will continue with a fudge of a decision and continuing uncertainty and divisiveness across the country.

Ok, so it is not a complete parallel with Brexit - there is no squabbling within the party, and no negotiations with other countries (though the opposition in Kenya has blamed the EU for saying the first poll was fair, when it was found it wasn't; everyone loves bashing the EU); it is unlikely anyone cares enough in the UK to protest. But there is confusion, divisiveness and uncertainty. And it's not good for anyone. The UK is wasting years (and maybe billions of pounds) standing still whilst other countries can get on with more important things. Kenya is only wasting months and hundreds of millions of pounds, but in a poor country it is having major consequences.

So every day there are new twists and turns; will the opposition take part in the election after all? unlikely since they've not been campaigning and will likely lose. Will the election go ahead, even with opposition boycotts? probably as the electoral commission is mandated with trying their best. Will the election be credible in the eyes of the courts, or be seen as credible by the people? unlikely, so there may be another re-run. Will there be more violence? For sure, but hopefully it won't be too bad.

There is hope that politicians can talk to one another and find a way forward (a favourite phrase in Kenya). We all have to hope so. Otherwise,it is likely that once an election is finally held and been deemed as final, and then the violence subsides, live will return to normal, just with more than 40% of the country seeing the President as illegitimate. When the court annulled the election it was held up as evidence of impartiality and independence of the courts and the institutions in Kenya, but by the end of this there may be no trust in the electoral body or the courts, or the government.

This may be the most likely outcome as things stand today, but it won't be the best. Certainly not for the long-term.

Fingers crossed something might change in the next few days!