So Kenya seems to be remaining at around 7 cases so far; it was fairly quick to limit restrictions on incoming travelers as well as domestic movement (unlike some European countries). Some people here thought it was all a bit dramatic and drastic action to have taken without it being a serious issue, but of course now, 1 week since the majority of those more severe restrictions came into place (some earlier ones were already there a few weeks ago), it is clear that it is very important to take action earlier rather than later; and if Kenya can continue for a few weeks or even months in this current state of distancing but not lockdown then the economic damage might be somewhat limited, and the health damage definitely limited. There is no chance that Kenya could handle much more than a few hundred severe cases to be honest, as is likely the same with most developing countries.
This current state is that there should be no large gatherings, people should keep there distance as much as possible, and not travel as much as possible (which includes working remotely if possible). But restaurants are still open, so are bars until 7.30 (people are supposed to keep their distance inside), transport continues to run (though now occupancy levels are limited to allow more space between people), people can still go in and out of houses and move around if they want. Of course anyone coming into the country (and only Kenyan citizens or foreigners with work permits, which means no tourists, can come in) must self-isolate for 14 days (as i have been doing since i arrived 12 days ago, which was before the government policy but was already a company policy) and there is all the usual stuff about handwashing etc.
It has been interesting to see how people and companies seem to be rallying around so far, coordinating efforts and it has been impressive. Even the government's actions have been fast and relatively efficient (i think the airport finally got serious though it did take a few days) though they haven't had to do too much yet to be honest; mostly just make announcements and communicate the above actions. They have been improving medical facilities and supplies, but certainly not very dramatically compared to western countries, and there are some glaring gaps. The main one being that they have only today starting doing testing on random people (rather than those who come to hospital sick) which is necessary as some people might not get sick so no-one knows if they are carrying the virus, and others may be sick but not go to hospital (fearing the direct cost or opportunity cost of not working). It seems the reason for this has been lack of tests and the costs of tests. Even getting test results seems to take a day or two!
The government has tried to take some other actions to cushion the economic costs of this current state, but it is difficult. They don't have much money, and even if they did, there are not many good (or fast) mechanisms for them to support businesses, let alone individuals. And the majority of the country are either self-employed (including farmers) or working in the informal economy. So they don't pay taxes and don't really exist in any welfare systems. So even if one wanted to help them proactively it is hard. The best one can do is try not to have to go into a total lockdown, and of course try to keep things working, like transport, supply chains and logistics etc.
Lots of endless WhatsApp messages of course which are mostly a distraction or not that relevant; often because of the various industry groups I am in where people discuss responses, coordination and share ideas, as well as latest news and activities. And it gets a bit much sometimes. Still better to communicate too much and be over-prepared I suppose than not; and so far that is the case.
The main challenge is making people keep to the self-isolation requirements (one person who was positive and in hospital even managed to escape the hospital for a few hours so of course all the people that the person came into contact with have to be traced and tested); but if the number of cases inside the country can be fairly few, and restrictions kept up on those travelling in, it might be possible to allow more and more economic activity amongst the informal sector before those people who are already very poor start to suffer major consequences. Here's hoping....
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