Back in August I noted that the positivity rate had begun to decline and in September the government decide to extend the curfew to 11pm, allow bars and clubs to reopen (whilst following protocols), and then in October allow those children who would be taking exams next year to go back to school (the remaining children were potentially to return later that month).
With that cue, bars filled up, parties began to be held and political rallies took place. But also, larger events took place in person again. The government began holding various conferences and planning meetings in Naivasha or at the Coast; and everyone began to think the virus had been conquered. This was plainly not true. Although mask wearing had not been high for a while it started to really fall off, especially in the rural areas.
So in October, a few weeks after these announcements were made the positivity rate began increasing again from 5% up towards 15%, though the testing numbers still remain around 5,000 a day give or take. The so-called second-wave was upon us. Though I don't think that is really the correct term. In countries where there was a first wave, a strict lock down that came close to eradicating the virus, and then the virus returns, that would seem to be a second wave. In Kenya though it is hard to really know from such little testing, it seemed the virus just spread (slower than it could have done, thankfully, thanks to various measures) throughout the population in the big cities. It never really disappeared. It just moved towards the rural areas (or at least the testing has begun to pick up cases in rural areas).
Positivity rates may have increased because of more people being in more close contact in bars and schools, but I am not sure it was such a big difference. People were already in close contact a lot with churches often still having hundreds of people (they were restricted to 1/3rd their usual capacity), and many people mingling as always around town.
Anyway, the curfew has recently been moved forward an hour to 10pm, non-exam children's potential return to school has not happened, and will likely happen in January, political rallies have been banned, government meetings scaled back and moved back online, and the government has decided to enforce some of the regulations for bars and restaurants.
The numbers dying each day has increased somewhat to around 10-15 most days, and many of the hospitals are now filling up with patients (though there is not a lot of capacity in hospitals anyway, particularly ICU and HDU). Numbers of deaths are not very reliable generally, but at least the numbers have not been increasing too much.
The government has probably taken a sensible approach of trying to be a bit stricter on bigger gatherings and those in close quarters, which it probably could not have opened up before (there was pressure on reopening the evening economy which pays taxes and employees people). It has to balance the economic impacts, and so the new measures are fairly light. No noticeable difference to life which still continues as usual for most people (at least if their employment has been affected), though we still work from home.
So the next month or two may, hopefully, remain the same. We'll see if the numbers from the rural areas pick up a lot or not. They have fewer healthcare facilities and equipment, but presumably the virus has already been circulating there for a while and this is just a peak, before it also (as in the cities) circulates through having affected most people, and (at least compared to Latin America and Europe) has relatively minimal health impacts.
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