Reflections on 2020

2020 has ended. There have been three trips to Germany - the first in the Summer that involved going to beaches by the lake and then camping with associated cycling/walking/boating activities; the second in October that mostly focused on visits to Dresden and Leipzig alongside other child-friendly activities; and the third (and longest) that just finished marked by long walks in the forest with Andrea and the dogs, plenty of time with the children (some of it watching TV, some of it more educational or playful), and time indoors (plenty of which was eating) due to the cold weather and short daylight hours. Oh, and some time running in freezing cold temperatures, though still highly enjoyable.

The last trip to Germany has been the only time that I have had to experience a "lockdown" in any real sense of the word. Only supermarkets have been open, and we have only been out of the house for physical exercise/play (I don't believe there was a time limit thankfully, like there may have been in some countries earlier in the year) and to visit one other household (Andrea's parents). As it was only 2 weeks and really felt like a precious holiday to spend time with the kids, I enjoyed it but I can imagine it'd be tougher for others for months. During such a short time, having a small apartment and no garden didn't matter.

At the onset of the pandemic there was the sense of worry that comes with fear of a new disease and not knowing what the future would hold; mostly there was the online learning challenges that I'm fortunate Andrea was not just able to deal with, but went beyond the feeble efforts of the school. Though there was a couple of months when restaurants closed, most of the year the only restriction was the evening curfew. So, I've certainly not suffered much (and in Germany the girls had no restrictions until November). Now I'm heading back to Kenya, again with few restrictions, and nice weather for the outdoors.

Work has evolved somewhat with a lot of home working and online meetings/events, but since the Summer there's even been plenty of face to face meetings or small physical events. And even a few domestic work trips. It's been quite surreal with daily updates on COVID 19 tests, infections and deaths; debates about what those statistics mean, especially in Kenya; several friends and family members getting infected with at least two getting very seriously ill and spending time in hospital; and of course all the political aspects of the pandemic within countries and internationally which will have long-term consequences. 

Some of these will be positive with more recognition of value of healthcare systems and prevention (and thus investments in those areas), faster vaccine development and better coordination/data collection/transparency mechanisms. Other front line workers in care homes and from transport to agricultural, food and delivery services are now seen as essential and critical, rightly so. The media has been talking a lot about people valuing life, people, friendships more. Though in reality, let's see... 

The conversations around lock downs with questions over health vs economics were quite interesting. The numbers of "excess deaths" mattering more than pure COVID tests and the dubious use of statistics to serve certain purposes (for example, many hospital ICUs are generally close to full normally without having extra capacity that is generally not needed, so only a few extra patients may tip towards full capacity) are just some of the debates that took place. Scientists were clear that science can provide some estimates and some evidence, but that decisions being made were political decisions, weighing up social, economic and even political factors alongside pure scientific ones. 

Ultimately during 2020 those who considered these issues carefully have come away with a lot more knowledge about science, statistics, vaccinations, and a better understanding of both the difficulties balancing competing priorities as well as the challenge of making decisions without full knowledge (not least the 2-3 week time lag that came between decisions being made and then impacts becoming clear). 2020 was of course an awful year but there were some silver linings, such as a better educated public from these discussions, and the importance of accurate information/messaging (and the dangers of inaccurate information). 

No doubt that misinformation and the power of social media was already a hot topic, but in 2020 it became clear it could have life-and-death consequences (and not just with COVID-19, the US race-related riots and election protests as well). There will be changes this year, a different balance will be struck about freedom of speech and who is responsible for saying or sharing information. The roles of in the individual, the business, the media, and the government will be hotly debated. 

Maybe there's been some positive environmental benefits in 2020 (apart from in packaging waste!) but that should also have made it clearer the economic consequences that could arise from the new environmental focus that Biden will bring. Not that there is not a need for faster action, and not that it cannot be done in ways that do bring economic and social benefits, just that changes need to be carefully thought through, or allowed to happen through natural or market-based means. Living in a developing country that is heavily dependent on international tourism for livelihoods as well as foreign currency, it is clear that physical travel for tourism is very very important (and also for business). There are some adaptations that are possible with digital technologies, but as with all changes, if these adaptations take place it will require retraining of workers for different jobs. We can't afford the mistakes of the Asian manufacturing offshoring era and de-industrialisation of some Western cities that caused so much heartache there (though with many poverty alleviation benefits to the Asian countries).

Amongst the negative consequences of the pandemic such as economic and health, lack of trust and spread of incorrect information are others that may be more subtle. Mental health and fitness may now be recognised as more important but undoubtedly suffered whilst it is expected that education for the majority of children regressed dramatically. Inequality will have increased, and the questions of access to vaccines, access to debt financing and so on have highlighted this. 

In fact the difference between the situation for those who can work remotely or study remotely (with the technology or proper guidance) and those who can't (in richer countries as well as poorer countries) typifies the biggest impact of the pandemic, that of increasing inequality even more than before. 

During the year, it has been interesting to contrast different countries' responses. Some (Island economies, for example; or those with recent experience of other pandemics) have done much better than others. Comparing countries with different political styles and systems has shown some countries with more devolved power doing better than those that are more centralised sometimes. In other cases, having more centralised or more authoritarianism (or at least, decisive) leadership has also been important in making faster decisions, more extreme decisions, and braver decisions. In many cases, decisions were made too late and tough decisions were not made for fear of the consequences, when ultimately (with hindsight) those consequences would have been very light compared to what later transpired. Countries that took the tougher decisions around international travel, and tightly controlling isolations, for example, no doubt suffered in those aspects of the economies, but could remain stronger in the rest of the economy. As an island the UK could have got into a situation after the first lock down like New Zealand and Australia, Japan or South Korea if it had been brave. But it decided that summer holidays and easier travel was more important, and then ruined the rest of the year.

Digital transformation and connectivity have of course become even more important than they were before. And it is not just typical industries. Who would have thought of having a funeral livestreamed online, or having entertainers who specialise in online parties, or of doing virtual 3D tours of museums, or watching live-streams of animal safaris? The adaptation has been incredible. And I can barely imagine how the world would have managed even 20 years ago. Ultimately the number of deaths are tiny compared to previous global pandemics, and that is a real complement to today's societies and the systems (economic, political, social, technological, welfare etc) that have been set-up and have managed quite well. How the world will manage now with such huge debt levels, we don't yet know, but at least we have learned the lessons from the decade after the financial crisis where the debt (and extent of austerity).

I am very optimistic for the future. There is now so much focus on health data, recognition of the need for having healthy lives, and capability to provide healthcare remotely that our healthcare industries will be radically transformed. There has been huge investments in healthcare infrastructure in developing countries, and incredible awareness of healthy behaviours. We are now spoilt for choice with incredible online educational content, and hopefully that can be made available to all. It should enable the retraining that will be required for future economic growth. Logistics and transport has been more slowly transformed, but it has certainly transformed. A desire for in-person physical interactions will inspire a boom in new offerings that will replace retail shops on the High-Street which were already in decline. New hybrid online and offline experiences and retail offerings will take off. E-commerce will create new opportunities for entrepreneurs and SMEs. Social welfare systems have reformed and thinking around unemployment, homelessness and much more has changed dramatically. I am optimistic that with more careful planning and appropriate policy support and responses, the pandemic will help us with the adaptation that was already underway.