Protests in Kenya

5 weeks ago protests erupted in Kenya, ostentiously because of resistance to the new taxes the government planned to bring in, but primarily due to a lack of trust in the government and dissatisfaction with everything happening (from corruption to the high cost of living). The protest movement caught the government by surprise and then has become tangled up with other political movements - from members of the official opposition party joining the reconstituted Cabinet to various powerful people either encouraging the protests or just taking advantage of them for political gain, economic gain or any other reason (partly by encouraging hooligans to take advantage of the protests).

The government has been in somewhat of a bind, clearly torn between multiple forces. This was demonstrated with the original hard line response, then the concessions in the following days. The President has multiple constituencies who he needs on his side --and the protestors (aka. Citizens) may not be the most important ones if his eye remains focused on re-election in 2027 (rather than focusing on the present). There are his own MPs, the opposition MPs, his political party, his financial backers, and those who could help him get re-elected. Then there are the fianciers, mostly international, and predominantly the IMF which is lending money to Kenya but expects taxes in order to ensure repayment (other lenders, particularly international ones are likely also concerned).

All the uncertainty with weekly protests and changes in government affects the economy furthering the economic challenges. The protestors's demands evolve, and they proudly declare themselves leader less - yet want the President to stand down. Maybe there will be some movement in that arena if they can recall existing MPs and force new by-elections. It is unlikely they'll get the President to resign, and they may not want the Deputy President as an alternative. The Deputy President is, it seems, at loggerheads with the President (ironic, as the current President did something similar when he was Deputy President); whilst the security forces (both he police and the military) are dragged in to things in various ways.

International actors continue to give opinions, for what it is worth; and there have been some strange escapades - from the Deputy President's accusations against the Head of the Intelligence Services (1 month on, he is still in his post) to the President's accusations against the Ford Foundations (some of who's NGO grantees seem to be involved in the protests).

Tech has been at the heart of the protest movement with protests entirely organised online (the Internet was my seriously slowed down restricting access to social media apps at the height of the protests) and discussions on how to move forward happening in X (formerly Twitter) spaces. The President joined one to answer questions from the protestors.

Meanwhile protestors/youth in other countries have been inspired by those in Kenya and begun similar movements. No doubt the success of the protests (the shelving of the taxes, the replacement of some of the Cabinet, announcement of other new measures that might reduce corruuption, for example) has inspired them. Whether the movement will achieve any significant results in the medium-term is still in the balance. The government has had to slash budgets, since it can't raise extra taxes. But it might bring back some of the taxes at some point. The announcements related to corruption or efficiencies (such as cancelling some budget items that protestors thought unnecessary, such as the Office of the First, Second and Third Ladies) may not be fully implemented, or could be undone later one. So it is too early to say.

It is, though, an interesting time. Whether the protests can achieve anything significant or whether it is a turning point in the country is not known yet. But there is certainly optimism amongst the youth that their voices are being heard; they feel their core message about the need for change and not to have the typical businessmen/politicians always run the country (for seemingly their personal benefits) has come out clearly, as well as their unsatisfaction. 

In the meantime work has been disrupted - events postponed or cancelled; enagements with government leadership is difficult and there is often work-from-home during the protests (that can vary from twice a week to once a week). It also affected school before they broke up for the Summer holidays.