Playing and learning

The kids started going back to school in early May and it has been very successful, without any COVID cases, with Hannah joining the swimming team and doing some intensive training twice a week, and with extracurricular activities too, particularly music (piano and recorder). They are very happy at school and the teachers are all fantatic. Leah is a bit slower to make friends, but she's still happy. She's actually ahead of the class in some areas after the 4 months of tutoring she had earlier, and she likes school.

For the first time since Shenzhen (when I would take Hannah on my bike to kindergarten and then cycle off to work), I am involved in the school run (previously Andrea would take the kids to German school, work from there and bring them back) doing the morning trip for Hannah, Leah and a neighbour whilst Andrea does the afternoon trip. Though it is not the most environmentally friendly reason it is much cheaper than the bus, much quicker, and also nice to spend time with the children in the car.

The children are very talkative in the car, and just like it was interesting to be so involved in knowing what the children were doing in class whilst they were learning online, hearing them talking in the car provides interesting perspectives on how they are growing up, what they are talking about with their friends, and so on. So the conversations are often about friends, YouTube celebrities, or just playful joking. Our kids seem to adopt strange Kenyan accents when talking to their friends, though they are able to drop it at home (if they want to, often they don't want to!).

In the evenings and at weekends the children continue to love playing, usually downstairs, but sometimes indoors, usually physical games with running around, hiding, bikes and other activities. Sometimes they do role plays, and they quite like pretending to be teachers and students and setting up a classroom and giving each other work to do, and helping each other out. They've done some more shows to whoever is willing to watch in the apartment (including selling tickets and putting up posters), like playing investigators or other games and generally enjoy exploring. Leah particularly still likes playing with her horses, unicorns or lego sets. There's been fashion shows and face painting and all sorts. It is wonderful to observe and sometimes fun to participate.

There are still the frequent issues with watching TV or playing computer games, which we try to limit, which is a shame since they play so nicely, and they even enjoy reading when they get around to it (which is not as common as it should be, though we are trying). Sometimes the friends can be a great influence encouraging reading or playing together, other times not so good - with the demand to play computer games against each other, or watching TV at their house a lot; let alone the influence of accents and need to keep on information regarding the latest YouTube celebrity.

I suppose this is what it is like now as kids start to grow up, experience peer pressure and parents start to lose some influence over their lives. Coping with that might be a blog for another day!

April

I lacked a better title for this blog, so went with the obvious! A month has passed that was marked by the long rains and the closure of schools and restaurants, as well as a virtual border around Greater Nairobi. 

This meant the girls started their new schools with online learning. Hannah was quite capable of doing everything independently, whilst Leah still needed the tutor to help due to her challenges focusing on studying (rather than playing, particularly with the temptations at home) and the need for more support in more basic subjects. However both have progressed well and the quality of the online learning has been fantastic with excellent attitudes and commitment from the teachers, very good material, some innovative thinking and prompt feedback on submitted work. The approach (just like a real classroom, sensibly) was mostly live explanations for a while, then individual work (not much group work unfortunately), whilst the teacher was available online for support at any time.

Both children have therefore started to learn French and Swahili, whilst also having various PE, PSHE or even swimming lessons (swimming is basically still PE) and Leah was the star of the week in her first week, though it hasn't really inspired her. Only one more week to go until the schools reopen and they can start to physically meet and make new friends. The routine of the last few weeks with Andrea going to a rented office to work and me and the tutor being at home all day will then change - and I'll be alone working during the daytime, probably more productively!

With restaurants closed, most entertainment places also closed, so we've just been walking, horse riding and cycling, and letting the kids play at the weekends. The Easter trip to the beach was postponed yet again, and we managed to find the odd food court that would sell take away food and let you eat it there, and the odd picnic bench in a park.

So now everything is back open again weekends can be more fun, and we can even plan more trips outside Nairobi. And there will be less cooking at home too!

A weekend with the elephants

March whizzed by in a routine. Weekdays Esther would come to tutor Leah whilst I would work at home (either the balcony or the bedroom) or occasionally go out for meetings, and frequently got for a walk to get a coffee; weekends we'd go to Karura for Leah and the neighbor's kids to cycle whilst I would job, and then other fun activities such as go karting or swimming or a fun fair.

Then Andrea and Hannah returned to Kenya from Germany in time for a 3-day weekend away. We took the train that was funded/built by China a few years ago (known as the SGR, or Standard Guage Railway) with everything very similar to Chinese trains and stations, from the security machines to chairs in the waiting rooms and the bridge over the platform. I'd booked economy class as that enables groups to be around a table facing each other, in theory. In practice we were unfortunately mixed up with other people, which when eating and drinking and taking masks down is good for neither them nor us. On the way back we took first class, which is more like an airplane, with more spacious seats, all facing the same way, and right next to the dining car. 

The train has had various forms of criticism over the years, mostly around the cost and design including issues around high land costs (possibly due to corruption), and the high cost overall for what has been delivered, which is a single line track (with passing places every 50km), with a top speed of around 100 km/h. It was decided to build a brand new track (rather than upgrading the old track the British built over 100 years prior, which had still been working until recently, though slowly and with frequent problems, and of which another stretch going to Western Kenya and Up to Central Kenya is being restored). The ticketing systems work well, the service was excellent from the fully Kenyan staff, and the train ran on time (there are only a couple of passenger trains a day).

Our ride was 4 hours, which is 2/3rds of the way going South-East from Nairobi towards the Coast, where we alighted at Voi, for a 45 minute road transfer to Salt Lick Lodge in the Taita Hills, close to the Tanzania border. There is a sister hotel called the Taita Hills Hotel which has the swimming pool and is where lunch is served, so we took lunch there and stayed by the pool for a few hours before taking a game drive in the late afternoon. We saw a few lions and most other game animals and the kids generally enjoyed it. Then we finished up at Salt Lick Lodge, a truly unique experience as the entire structure is built on stilts above a watering hole (that has two man-made boreholes providing it with water year-round). We were very lucky as we were coming at the end of the dry season and it had not rained for a while, so all the animals came there for water. As we drove up, we could see hundreds and hundreds of animals surrounding the lodge, even from a distance.

Once we arrived we were excited to walk to the balcony where you could almost touch the elephants drinking (there were at least 20, alongside the hundreds of buffalo, zebra, antelopes and other animals) and also go into a tunnel that went underground and came out in a small viewing building that was at ground level (mostly sunken underground actually) on the other side. Unfortunately we saw a zebra drown in the watering hole, as it had been injured by a lion previously and though it managed to get to the water, once in, it couldn't get up. Later that night rangers took the zebra away.

As it was Andrea's birthday we had a candlelit dinner outside overlooking the animals (there were a few floodlights on so we could see them) which was wonderful (especially the wine), and the Lodge provided a wonderful cake delivered with a whole team of singing staff that was quite memorable (they had also provided flowers too). It was a memorable evening, even if the night was quite restless as the elephants were quite noisy as they were wondering underneath our room and drinking. We could look out of our window and watch as different animals would turn up in a long line, drink then wonder off in another direction as other animals would come; though frequently there was various species mingling together, and throughout there were lots of birds and other smaller animals like Meerkats.

The next morning we took another game drive, this time seeing more lions closer-up as they roamed around but still didn't see any cheetahs or leopards unfortunately. Then it was back for breakfast, a few hours resting in the hotel and off to the Taita Hills for lunch and swimming. Later that afternoon we took a nature walk with some rangers down the hill past a few more elephants and to another lake that was more like a wetland or marsh. The rangers did a great job telling the kids about everything and looking at different footprints and poo!

After that we were taken for what is known as a "sundowner", which is usually having some drinks/snacks outdoors and watching the sun go down. Though at Salt Lick they took us on a long drive up a hill to an area with a fire and a few huts. Alongside the drinks and snacks there was around 15 locals doing a performance, just for us four, which was delightful, and we joined it with some dancing, and even some banging on the drums. It was wonderful experience and delightfully well done with incredible views (though not so much of the sunset that was mostly behind clouds, still it didn't rain whilst we were up there).

Whilst on the hill we could see heavy rain falling in other parts of the conservancy, and once we came down the hill we could see there was rain in various parts. It was almost surreal getting back to Salt Lick that night and not seeing a single animal at the watering hole, compared to the hundreds the night before. We had another wonderful dinner, slept better without the animals, had breakfast the next morning and then took the train back to Nairobi.

It was a fantastic few days and highly recommended. The service was excellent and the kids are already begging to go back, which is unusual as they have seen so many animals before in our other visits to national parks that normally it doesn't get them so excited.

Unfortunately, whilst we were away, due to the rising cases of COVID-19, including increase in hospital cases, the President announced that restaurants would go take-away only, most entertainment and tourism facilities would have to close, schools would close (it is Easter holidays anyway, but it looks like there will be online learning after the holidays for a few weeks for the private schools, whilst public schools have extra time off during exams, and then hopefully in May schools will re-open), and there would be a virtual boundary in the region around Nairobi to stop people coming in or out and thus spreading the latest South African variant that is causing havoc in Nairobi more widely.

By most country's standards, this third wave is not so serious, with deaths rising to a maximum of 20 a day, and numbers in hospital being a couple thousand, but that is still a cause for concern. So we hope that this wave will pass in a few weeks, as has been predicted (this South African variant is reinfecting people a second time, and since Schools went back in January the cases have spread quite rapidly). Meanwhile we can still play with the neighbors, go for walks and picnics in the forests, go to shops, and even play mini-golf, so it could be worse. 

Food in Kenya

2 years ago Andrea was making frequent trips overseas and left both the kids with me; I'd put them on the school bus early on, go for a run and then go to work. They'd come home on the bus and a local kindergarten teacher we had hired would pick them up and look after them until I got back from work. During these trips I'd be doing the cooking, though only 1 meal a day, and just for me and the kids, and just for a couple of weeks. We managed.

Last year I was cooking just for myself most of the time, which is really very simple since I am not picky, and I was happy to be repeating a handful of meals over and over again. For the last month, with Hannah and Andrea in Germany I have been cooking again, but this time for Leah and the teacher (lunch only for her). Thankfully the teacher is also not particularly picky, so we've managed. 

Hannah eats almost anything which is great, but Leah is the one who is picky nowadays, especially with vegetables. At any one time there tends to only be 1 or 2 vegetables she will eat, but she will eat them like crazy if you manage to find out the right one at the right time (and get her to try it, because then she realises she likes it; it is this switching that is the challenge)! Tomatoes and cucumber sometimes work, corn is pretty common, broccoli too. Butternut Squash soup is a good one (though certainly easier and quicker to buy than cook). She's always quite reliably good at eating meat (mostly chicken, but frequently beef too) and some fish (especially steamed, fillet). And in the last year or so she has certainly got more into chicken/fish nuggets/fingers.

Leah has always been obsessed with carbohydrates, so for a long time we have limited these. Rarely eating too much rice, noodles, pasta or sweet potatoes, for example. And very rarely Chips. This brings me onto Kenyan food, which, as with many diets around the world (Europeans tend to be big on potatoes; Asians big on noodles/rice) also are heavily carbohydrate-based (presumably it is common because it is cheap, filling and provides good energy for those working physically). 

Though in Kenya it is quite different forms of carbohydrates. For breakfast, a Mandazi is quite common, which is a form of fried bread (it looks like a samosa, but is hollow inside) - as are sausages and boiled eggs. During lunch and dinner Ugali is the most common, which looks sort of like rice tightly packed intogether or just a big ball of dough, simply made of flour and water. It is very useful for mopping up sauces and stews (using the hands) which the gives it flavor. Other popular carbohydrates are chapati (presumably a legacy of the Indian influence) which is similar to naan bread. There are also lots of root vegetables, such as taro, yams and cassava (especially for a snack alongside the typical Kenyan tea that is made of milk and sugar, not water). Corn (or maize) is common too.

When it comes to vegetables, there is quite a good variety locally available, often green in color including spinach (mchicha), Sukuma wiki which is similar to kale. There are also an interesting mix of beans available (maharagwe), and kachumbari which is tomato and onion salad. Kenyans are very much into their meat, with the famous phrase nyama choma meaning grilled meat covering all sorts, mostly beef, goat and chicken. Fantastically, the word in Swahili for chicken is kuku. Fish is also common, since there is a large coast and lake in Kenya, and can be cooked dry or wet, as with some other ways of eating meat (i.e. if not grilled) - with wet meaning in a stew with sauces.

There are of course plenty of regional specialties based on the climate and culture there. Most notably in Northern Kenya, which is quite arid, the predominance is of meat, such as goat; whilst along the Coast there is a heavy Arabic and Indian influence which means plenty of rice based dishes like pilau and more spices.

Kenyan food is alright. I wouldn't say it is spectacular, but it is certainly not awful. You of course get what you pay for, which poor quality and very tough meat something that annoys me and my teeth! There is not as much variety as Asian food in general, but of course, living in Nairobi, almost anything can be bought from anywhere in the world. Here foods from all over the world can be bought in restaurants or even in supermarkets, so there is no complaints. You can choose the cheap fast food restaurants (that often serve Kenyan food, not only American style) or higher quality restaurants. And of course, almost every restaurant delivers nowadays (especially since COVID-19, but even before then) and most of the middle class restaurants come with large car parks and playgrounds alongside lots of outdoor seating which is excellent!

Busy times with the kids back in Kenya

After a few weeks on my own in January, and once it was confirmed that the schools and kindergartens would be closed in Germany for the beginning of tye year, Andrea and the girls came back to Kenya for 3 weeks. They really enjoyed playing with their friends back here who they missed a lot, and we even organized delayed birthday parties for them with their friends. We hired a tutor full-time to help Hannah with her school work (which is sent by email from the teacher in Germany, but there are no live lessons) and to start teaching Leah to read. 

We were planning for the girls to switch to a UK system instead of the German system at some point anyway, since the German School here is not very good at older levels from a combination of a lack of students, lack of investment in facilities and teachers, and poor management. However, the German school took the matter out of our hands by refusing to let us rejoin for the last term because they were annoyed that last year we had privately criticised them and given suggestions as to how to improve their awful online learning; and crazily they also decided they could not meet our standards which was demonstrated by us helping our Children at home last year. More realistically it boils down to the fact that the headteacher was supposed to have learned all about online learning a year before COVID-19 at a conference and then integrated technology into learning, but instead skipped most of the conference, did nothing upon returning, and then was angry when this was pointed out to her.

So in the short-term, we thought it would be a tricky few months until the girls could start in their British school. However, the tutor we hired has been fantastic, especially for Leah who has learned so much it has definitely been better for her in preparing for her for primary school. Hannah enjoyed it as well, and we have seen the value in having personalised learning. So it has definitely worked out well (especially as we have neighbors the girls can play with daily to still have social interactions, whilst also doing sport, art and other activities with the tutor). In fact it worked out so well that when Andrea returned to Germany for a month of school before Easter, she left Leah in Kenya with me to continue with the tutor.

Whilst they were here, we went away for a weekend with some other children and they all had fun swimming, seeing animals, making a bonfire, and also walking to Kitengela glass. This is a well known business that recycles glass into some quite distinctively designed glassware, including furniture. The kids enjoyed looking at it, seeing the furnace, and also walking across the rickety bridge over a gorge next to it.

There was an online birthday party for a friend of Hannah's who left Kenya 2 years ago, and attempted a party in English and Spanish for kids from Kenya, Israel and Mexico amongst others, which was a bit of a struggle, but the organiser did do as good a job as she could do.

The weekends have been lots of fun, often with the kids cycling whilst the adults run, visiting waterfalls in forests, and also walks in various nature parks; there has also been plenty of swimming (though often in hotel pools, since our pool remains empty) and a lot of playing. With Hannah gone for a few weeks, Leah has had more time to develop friendships with others and I think it has been good for her though she does miss her sister and mum a lot.

Life still continues then as normal, except for the wearing of masks, and smaller in-person events than normal. Now some vaccines have arrived, which will help health workers who continue to work very hard dealing with poor health infrastructure (though one that has improved since pre-COVID).

So a nice few months, though complicated, and certainly we are more fortunate than many others around the world. Hopefully all will continue.

Online Parties and Hannah is 9

Last weekend was Hannah's 9th birthday and an occasion for two online birthday parties. 

The first was an organised 90 minute event with a paid entertainer doing magic, games (such as finding things around the house, dancing to music), and various spy activities. We kept the online group small, around 6 kids, and had a break in the middle for cake (each parent provided some for their children who were mostly in Kenya, except for one in Israel). Overall it went well; the entertainer was full of energy and made a lot of effort to keep it engaging. The children enjoyed it and Hannah was very happy. 

It couldn't work as a hybrid event, but with everyone online it was quite good. Ultimately once everyone starts getting webcam for smart TVs (and the video conference apps work on smart TVs, which they generally don't at the moment - I should know as I have tried and the only one that does is Google Duo) so that people are much more life-like compared to using tablets and laptops, then I think it will become much better. I have heard there are also ways of doing Virtual Reality meetings, which I think would also be fantastic, but almost no-one yet has such headsets. Who knows, maybe in a year or two it might be viable and then I think it would work even better.

The second was using houseparty with our family; something that we have done several times, usually doing the drawing games (someone draws, and everyone else has to guess), though there are also acting games that can work well, especially when children can read. Karaoke might work well for adults, but house party doesn't yet have any kids songs, which is a shame. We also tried online uno, which was alright for a short while though might not engage everyone for too long. House party works quite well for an hour or so normally and is important for children who are not really used to just sitting and talking on a video conference app. If you observe children in real life, they never just talk, they always talk whilst doing something else, whether it is playing with toys or playing outside. House party has a lot of other games built in and I think it is a great idea, and will be helpful for people who have friends overseas who they want to socialise with, even after lock downs end.

We've also tried watching TV together, very much something that didn't exist before the pandemic. The idea is that some software synchronises the show and has a chat box built in. We actually used WhatsApp to discuss by voice rather than text chat, since it was easier for the kids, and selected We vs Wild, which requires viewers to make plot choices every few minutes, so we would pause and discuss and then make decisions. This was a pretty good idea and quite good fun, though unfortunately it confused the software (because after each option it has to jump to a different part of the show and had trouble synchronising). There is promise for more of such games.

Hannah is still very happy being a child, which I think is great; sacrificing aspects of maturity or more extracurricular activities for playing more. We believe childhood should last as long as possible, developing creative and not being too exposed to the world too soon. It probably helps that she has a younger sister; they play together a lot, or a lot alongside each other with various dolls, cars, lego and the like. Despite the odd call of "I'm bored, can I watch TV or play games", when they get a no, the kids are perfectly able to entertain themselves with toys, role plays or other activities with us. Recently Leah has especially got into playing jigsaw puzzles, and also likes playing some education games on the computer.

Reflections on 2020

2020 has ended. There have been three trips to Germany - the first in the Summer that involved going to beaches by the lake and then camping with associated cycling/walking/boating activities; the second in October that mostly focused on visits to Dresden and Leipzig alongside other child-friendly activities; and the third (and longest) that just finished marked by long walks in the forest with Andrea and the dogs, plenty of time with the children (some of it watching TV, some of it more educational or playful), and time indoors (plenty of which was eating) due to the cold weather and short daylight hours. Oh, and some time running in freezing cold temperatures, though still highly enjoyable.

The last trip to Germany has been the only time that I have had to experience a "lockdown" in any real sense of the word. Only supermarkets have been open, and we have only been out of the house for physical exercise/play (I don't believe there was a time limit thankfully, like there may have been in some countries earlier in the year) and to visit one other household (Andrea's parents). As it was only 2 weeks and really felt like a precious holiday to spend time with the kids, I enjoyed it but I can imagine it'd be tougher for others for months. During such a short time, having a small apartment and no garden didn't matter.

At the onset of the pandemic there was the sense of worry that comes with fear of a new disease and not knowing what the future would hold; mostly there was the online learning challenges that I'm fortunate Andrea was not just able to deal with, but went beyond the feeble efforts of the school. Though there was a couple of months when restaurants closed, most of the year the only restriction was the evening curfew. So, I've certainly not suffered much (and in Germany the girls had no restrictions until November). Now I'm heading back to Kenya, again with few restrictions, and nice weather for the outdoors.

Work has evolved somewhat with a lot of home working and online meetings/events, but since the Summer there's even been plenty of face to face meetings or small physical events. And even a few domestic work trips. It's been quite surreal with daily updates on COVID 19 tests, infections and deaths; debates about what those statistics mean, especially in Kenya; several friends and family members getting infected with at least two getting very seriously ill and spending time in hospital; and of course all the political aspects of the pandemic within countries and internationally which will have long-term consequences. 

Some of these will be positive with more recognition of value of healthcare systems and prevention (and thus investments in those areas), faster vaccine development and better coordination/data collection/transparency mechanisms. Other front line workers in care homes and from transport to agricultural, food and delivery services are now seen as essential and critical, rightly so. The media has been talking a lot about people valuing life, people, friendships more. Though in reality, let's see... 

The conversations around lock downs with questions over health vs economics were quite interesting. The numbers of "excess deaths" mattering more than pure COVID tests and the dubious use of statistics to serve certain purposes (for example, many hospital ICUs are generally close to full normally without having extra capacity that is generally not needed, so only a few extra patients may tip towards full capacity) are just some of the debates that took place. Scientists were clear that science can provide some estimates and some evidence, but that decisions being made were political decisions, weighing up social, economic and even political factors alongside pure scientific ones. 

Ultimately during 2020 those who considered these issues carefully have come away with a lot more knowledge about science, statistics, vaccinations, and a better understanding of both the difficulties balancing competing priorities as well as the challenge of making decisions without full knowledge (not least the 2-3 week time lag that came between decisions being made and then impacts becoming clear). 2020 was of course an awful year but there were some silver linings, such as a better educated public from these discussions, and the importance of accurate information/messaging (and the dangers of inaccurate information). 

No doubt that misinformation and the power of social media was already a hot topic, but in 2020 it became clear it could have life-and-death consequences (and not just with COVID-19, the US race-related riots and election protests as well). There will be changes this year, a different balance will be struck about freedom of speech and who is responsible for saying or sharing information. The roles of in the individual, the business, the media, and the government will be hotly debated. 

Maybe there's been some positive environmental benefits in 2020 (apart from in packaging waste!) but that should also have made it clearer the economic consequences that could arise from the new environmental focus that Biden will bring. Not that there is not a need for faster action, and not that it cannot be done in ways that do bring economic and social benefits, just that changes need to be carefully thought through, or allowed to happen through natural or market-based means. Living in a developing country that is heavily dependent on international tourism for livelihoods as well as foreign currency, it is clear that physical travel for tourism is very very important (and also for business). There are some adaptations that are possible with digital technologies, but as with all changes, if these adaptations take place it will require retraining of workers for different jobs. We can't afford the mistakes of the Asian manufacturing offshoring era and de-industrialisation of some Western cities that caused so much heartache there (though with many poverty alleviation benefits to the Asian countries).

Amongst the negative consequences of the pandemic such as economic and health, lack of trust and spread of incorrect information are others that may be more subtle. Mental health and fitness may now be recognised as more important but undoubtedly suffered whilst it is expected that education for the majority of children regressed dramatically. Inequality will have increased, and the questions of access to vaccines, access to debt financing and so on have highlighted this. 

In fact the difference between the situation for those who can work remotely or study remotely (with the technology or proper guidance) and those who can't (in richer countries as well as poorer countries) typifies the biggest impact of the pandemic, that of increasing inequality even more than before. 

During the year, it has been interesting to contrast different countries' responses. Some (Island economies, for example; or those with recent experience of other pandemics) have done much better than others. Comparing countries with different political styles and systems has shown some countries with more devolved power doing better than those that are more centralised sometimes. In other cases, having more centralised or more authoritarianism (or at least, decisive) leadership has also been important in making faster decisions, more extreme decisions, and braver decisions. In many cases, decisions were made too late and tough decisions were not made for fear of the consequences, when ultimately (with hindsight) those consequences would have been very light compared to what later transpired. Countries that took the tougher decisions around international travel, and tightly controlling isolations, for example, no doubt suffered in those aspects of the economies, but could remain stronger in the rest of the economy. As an island the UK could have got into a situation after the first lock down like New Zealand and Australia, Japan or South Korea if it had been brave. But it decided that summer holidays and easier travel was more important, and then ruined the rest of the year.

Digital transformation and connectivity have of course become even more important than they were before. And it is not just typical industries. Who would have thought of having a funeral livestreamed online, or having entertainers who specialise in online parties, or of doing virtual 3D tours of museums, or watching live-streams of animal safaris? The adaptation has been incredible. And I can barely imagine how the world would have managed even 20 years ago. Ultimately the number of deaths are tiny compared to previous global pandemics, and that is a real complement to today's societies and the systems (economic, political, social, technological, welfare etc) that have been set-up and have managed quite well. How the world will manage now with such huge debt levels, we don't yet know, but at least we have learned the lessons from the decade after the financial crisis where the debt (and extent of austerity).

I am very optimistic for the future. There is now so much focus on health data, recognition of the need for having healthy lives, and capability to provide healthcare remotely that our healthcare industries will be radically transformed. There has been huge investments in healthcare infrastructure in developing countries, and incredible awareness of healthy behaviours. We are now spoilt for choice with incredible online educational content, and hopefully that can be made available to all. It should enable the retraining that will be required for future economic growth. Logistics and transport has been more slowly transformed, but it has certainly transformed. A desire for in-person physical interactions will inspire a boom in new offerings that will replace retail shops on the High-Street which were already in decline. New hybrid online and offline experiences and retail offerings will take off. E-commerce will create new opportunities for entrepreneurs and SMEs. Social welfare systems have reformed and thinking around unemployment, homelessness and much more has changed dramatically. I am optimistic that with more careful planning and appropriate policy support and responses, the pandemic will help us with the adaptation that was already underway.

A COVID Christmas

Another flight during COVID - the usual situation except that this time, after changing in Frankfurt I arrived at the new Berlin Airport, opened several years late, but finally opened a couple of months ago. I had decided to take the COVID test there instead of Frankfurt, to see what it would be like and thus be able to better plan for my pre-departure test 2 weeks later.  We'll I certainly saw something... whilst spending almost 5 hours standing outside in the freezing cold in, basically, a car park in a very long, socially distanced queue. Not pleasant at all, but eventually having also missed the connecting flight due to delays (de-icing airplanes), I eventually got to see the family.

Germany still allows close family members to come out of quarantine with a negative test, but the lock down in place in Germany was tight, and so, for what it matters, this would be my first time living in a real lock-down, only allowed to see 1 other household or something like that (which would be Andrea's parents) though Kids don't count so they could still see a friend. The Christmas week involved regular lunches and dinners at Andrea's parents house, regular walks in the forest with the dogs, regular runs, and managing the kids' time indoors between TV, Computer games, Board Games, playing with toys and some exercise. There was also a couple of BBQs outside with a single other family (and a bonfire to keep warm) with sausages and mulled wine of course.

We found a nice new playground the other side of town and convinced the kids to cycle there and back a few times, which was good exercise. We also convinced them to do a fairly long walk in the forest once too, which they enjoyed - making it interesting looking at various trees, rocks or sticks; climbing up the little towers in the fields that are there for farmers to look out for animals and so on. Having a friend along helped.

All of the outdoors activity took place in the freezing cold with temperatures around zero all week. One day there was snow whilst we were walking; every day there was frost on cars and ice on lakes. Actually there were frequently blue skies, much to the disappointment of the kids who wanted more snow (they might get it in the second week of January). But nothing that lots of clothes, hats, scarves and gloves cannot deal with. Certainly a change from Nairobi, especially the morning run! Another big change has been the short hours. The last three winters I had spent in Africa and thus forgotten what it is like when it gets dark at 4pm and light at 8am. 

The days are short, the nights are long and there is not a lot to do during these days. Still, nothing wrong with getting a lot of sleep! I suppose without COVID there could be more trips to shops, or like in October, more trips to bigger cities that would have things happening (especially Christmas markets). Germans are quite keen on Christmas decorations outside houses, especially with a Santa Claus climbing out of a window or on a ladder alongside the decorative lights.

There was a fun experience for Christmas Eve as the kids were ordered out of the house whilst Santa delivered the presents. They came back to initially find a sack of coal, and then inside to find the presents which were mostly toys (boats, cars etc) and chocolate, though a second tablet now means each child has their own for games and TV. Parents watched on as kids screamed in joy. Surprisingly most of the Kids' chocolate still hasn't been eaten yet a few days later. I suppose we've done a good job drilling into them that they can't eat too much. Even if the adults' chocolate has disappeared quicker!

Essential shops remain open with limits on numbers inside, but everything else is closed, so this seems to be the first time in a very long time to spend so much time not doing anything! There are not even many work calls or emails as everyone in Kenya is also on vacation. Usually Christmas or other holidays have actually involved holidays somewhere in Africa or Asia, or occasionally in the UK. We'll we're managing with some school work, computer games (some educational), TV (some educational), board games, art and exercise. Certainly we are very fortunate: We still have jobs, warm homes and family to be with. Though as I write this several family members in the UK have tested positive. Fingers crossed, and we will see how things go in the next few days.

What Kenyan business leaders think

Huawei is a member of KEPSA, which is a business association in Kenya, and thus I sit in a WhatsApp group of many Kenyan business leaders discussing issues and working out if there is anything KEPSA can do about them.

One of the most frequent topics that get discussed is leadership, especially in Parastatals, which is the name of the state-owned (fully or partly) companies or regulators, that play a critical part in the economy, especially in energy and transport but also in agriculture and many other parts of the economy. These organisations are frequently criticised for doing badly or being corrupt, though some of them are quite profitable because they are monopolies in a particular part of the economy. So no matter what new laws are passed, and apart from various corruption investigations which could stop the negative aspects, the only way for them to be more productive components of the economy is through leadership that develops and implements appropriate strategies and culture throughout the organisation.

Many of the business leaders prefer to work in private companies, as those Parastatals may have a lot of challenges (especially their culture being more public sector than private sector), relatively low pay, and, the biggest issue, frequent intervention by the government (who will sit on the Board of these organisations) or parliament (who provide oversight to the organisations). The leadership may be as management or as independent Board members, and better quality, more committed, more passionate leadership is sorely needed according to those in KEPSA (some of which are trying to resolve these issues by joining those organisations as board members or in management). And more such people are needed; they will need to make sacrifices and they won't enjoy the job or have an easy job, but they may be fulfilled, and may be satisfied with their contributions to the country if they succeed. It seems, anecdotally, that there is an improvement taking place, slowly. It also seems there are some "shortcuts" taking place - such as bringing multiple entities together under one super organisation that has good leadership, or even using the military to run some particularly poor performing organisations (often smaller, more discreet ones).

Another frequent issue is corruption. This is always a recurring issue coming up, usually from government procurement to companies who don't qualify, don't deliver, or over charge, but somehow still got the projects; or they got some other favours from the government, such as land, licenses etc. There are a lot of investigations underway, and the new prosecution teams set-up a couple of years ago seem to be making progress, but it takes time, and may not make a big difference, with corruption perceived to be endemic across organisations. Many issues involve politicians (some of whom have been thrown out of power in the last year or two, though few have yet been found guilty whilst cases continue), who are legally allowed to continue to have their private business interests whilst being in power (though most also have interests through family members or friends).

One of the ironies is that in order to be fair, many procurement processes end up either  excluding bidders through setting high bars or are too complicated for many bidders to win; so "tenderpreneurs" who are well connected, and experienced in bidding/winning these tenders win. Sometimes they will deliver, by outsourcing to others and just taking a cut. Other times there are larger issues.

Aside from these two issues frequently discussed in the WhatsApp group, there are various committees (which also have sub-committees) which work on engaging government on various issues. In general it is quite an effective forum for dialogue, though it can take time to get results in certain areas. Never-the-less, it is interesting being a part of it and seeing how these kinds of institutions enable collaboration within indisutries, dialogue and engagement, which are crucial. Kenya is quite a small country economically and leaders in business and government are quite accessible, information can be obtained and so these forums can be of real use. I imagine this would be very difficult in larger countries, those with larger and more diverse economies and so on.

Another visit to Germany

In October I took another short trip to see the family in Germany. After I left in August they started school (Hannah) and kindergarten (Leah). The kindergarten didn't have any specific COVID-19 differences, since the kids are so young, I suppose they can't really wear masks and they need to play a lot together in class and outside and in the classroom. At the school, they had to wear masks when in common areas, like hallways, but not when in their own classroom. The school had extra catch-up classes for students who needed it, since the schools has been closed for a few months after Easter. Hannah was able to benefit from some of these, which was great, as of course she'd only had online learning since Easter, and had covered slightly different things to the local school.

Outside of school they were very busy with extra-curricular activities including swimming, dancing, horse riding and probably more. They were cycling to/from school, playing in the afternoons or weekends with their grandparents and seeing friends (if they had finished their homework). Everything was going very well, and everyone was happy - even the dog who was swiftly neutered (since Andrea's parents have a male dog, Alex) and was able to spend the day outdoors and playing with Alex. Indoors at public places, such as shops and on public transport, people were supposed to wear masks, and generally they were.

I arrived when the situation was starting to pick-up a little and was their half-term holiday. But during the 10 days we went to a fantastic indoor children's playground (kinder paradises Grimma) as well as day trips to Dresden and Leipzig. In Dresden we had wanted to go to the car factory again, but it was closed that day. We went to the Hygiene Museum, a museum about the body. Though the main museum was partly closed and the parts that were open were not that relevant for small kids, there was a good children's area that was quite interactive. There were tickets required for each, to limit the numbers. We took the little train that goes around the park, which the kids still love, and we also went to a Technology Museum that was very interactive. Even though some of it was a little advanced for the kids, they still enjoyed many of the activities. We found some good food and took trams frequently (which the Kids quite liked).

In Leipzig, we went to the Egyptian Museum, part of a University there, which the kids really enjoyed. They had been very interested in seeing pyramids (there was a model in the museum), mummies (there were a few in the museum), and hyroglyphics and the like (also plenty in the museum) since I had shown them photos and videos from my trip to Egypt a year ago. We also went to a Puppet Theatre, which I believe the kids enjoyed (it was all in German), and a children's museum (UNIKATUM) which is attached to a cafe. It had a lot of interactive displays, especially on the environment, a play area for kids with dressing up and the like, and as well as a coffee for the adults, the kids could make their own pancakes. Finally we also went shopping, and it was very busy.

Aside from those day trips, the weather was mixed, and the rest of the time we took the kids on their new scooters, went swimming (there is a very nice swimming complex with slides and a wave machine etc) a lot, and played with their 35 horses and unicorns, barbie dolls, and paw patrol toys, or played shopkeeper. It was wonderful to see them.

It has now been a few weeks since I left and new restrictions have been brought in, so extracurricular and sporting activities are all cancelled now, and travel is discouraged, particularly to different cities within Germany. However they are still going to school, and seeing friends; hopefully the situation will have improved by Christmas, but let's see.

Coronavirus Update #5

Back in August I noted that the positivity rate had begun to decline and in September the government decide to extend the curfew to 11pm, allow bars and clubs to reopen (whilst following protocols), and then in October allow those children who would be taking exams next year to go back to school (the remaining children were potentially to return later that month).

With that cue, bars filled up, parties began to be held and political rallies took place. But also, larger events took place in person again. The government began holding various conferences and planning meetings in Naivasha or at the Coast; and everyone began to think the virus had been conquered. This was plainly not true. Although mask wearing had not been high for a while it started to really fall off, especially in the rural areas.

So in October, a few weeks after these announcements were made the positivity rate began increasing again from 5% up towards 15%, though the testing numbers still remain around 5,000 a day give or take. The so-called second-wave was upon us. Though I don't think that is really the correct term. In countries where there was a first wave, a strict lock down that came close to eradicating the virus, and then the virus returns, that would seem to be a second wave. In Kenya though it is hard to really know from such little testing, it seemed the virus just spread (slower than it could have done, thankfully, thanks to various measures) throughout the population in the big cities. It never really disappeared. It just moved towards the rural areas (or at least the testing has begun to pick up cases in rural areas).

Positivity rates may have increased because of more people being in more close contact in bars and schools, but I am not sure it was such a big difference. People were already in close contact a lot with churches often still having hundreds of people (they were restricted to 1/3rd their usual capacity), and many people mingling as always around town.

Anyway, the curfew has recently been moved forward an hour to 10pm, non-exam children's potential return to school has not happened, and will likely happen in January, political rallies have been banned, government meetings scaled back and moved back online, and the government has decided to enforce some of the regulations for bars and restaurants.

The numbers dying each day has increased somewhat to around 10-15 most days, and many of the hospitals are now filling up with patients (though there is not a lot of capacity in hospitals anyway, particularly ICU and HDU). Numbers of deaths are not very reliable generally, but at least the numbers have not been increasing too much.

The government has probably taken a sensible approach of trying to be a bit stricter on bigger gatherings and those in close quarters, which it probably could not have opened up before (there was pressure on reopening the evening economy which pays taxes and employees people). It has to balance the economic impacts, and so the new measures are fairly light. No noticeable difference to life which still continues as usual for most people (at least if their employment has been affected), though we still work from home. 

So the next month or two may, hopefully, remain the same. We'll see if the numbers from the rural areas pick up a lot or not. They have fewer healthcare facilities and equipment, but presumably the virus has already been circulating there for a while and this is just a peak, before it also (as in the cities) circulates through having affected most people, and (at least compared to Latin America and Europe) has relatively minimal health impacts.

Travelling in the age of COVID-19

Andrea and the kids went back to Germany (on an "evacuation flight") in June. I went to visit them last week. Leaving Kenya, you don't need to get tested, but the arriving country, in this case Germany, does require it, with a negative test taken in the 48 hours before landing to avoid quarantine or instead taking a test on landing and then once the results are out, being able to leave quarantine.

I tried the test here, but the results didn't take the 2 days they were supposed to take. Instead they took 4 days and I'd already landed in Germany and got a negative result from a test there, in Frankfurt airport (within 4 hours of doing the test).

I had taken the dog with me, which was an extra level of complexity, though ultimately fairly smooth. There was a long queue outside the airport for the first security check (the trolleys were good at keeping social distance) and the temperature check, though inside less spacing whilst checking-in. Everyone wore masks of course. The lounges were closed, and there was no fingerprinting at the immigration desk. Every other chair was blocked off, but otherwise most things were fairly normal. On the plane, apart from wearing masks, the food and entertainment was all normal. On arrival in Frankfurt and then taking the train it was the same really. In fact as the train got further out of the big cities fewer people bothered with masks. I don't think anyone bothered with the hand sanitizing in the airport.

Germany has a stellar reputation for managing COVID-19, with an efficient, quick lockdown accompanying a strong healthcare system and strong, locally managed, contact tracing systems. With very few cases for weeks, especially in the rural areas where we were, life was basically as normal... in theory people were supposed to wear masks in indoor places, but in many cafes and restaurants people were not (and it is not required outdoors).

So it felt thoroughly strange after 4+ months in Kenya of wearing masks outdoors and indoors, and even whilst running. It also felt strange actually doing fun things - from theme parks to river rides, visiting tourist attractions like castles etc (although nowadays these things are open in Kenya too, but with masks). We even went to a pub (closed in Kenya) and various ice cream or food restaurants where there was no social distancing (unlike Kenya).

Returning to Kenya (having taken another COVID test in Frankfurt airport a few hours before boarding) we had to show the negative test result at immigration as well as fill in our contact details (and I was getting an SMS message every morning after arriving reminding me to update my health status in the app the government asked us to download and use).

Now it is back inside with a computer screen and phone most of the day, with daily runs, and rare physical social interactions with other people. Just lots of online video calls and phone calls, including with my family!

Coronavirus Update #4

oh dear, 2 months since the last update! Well since our last update the number of tests in Kenya has increased a little... to around 6,000 give or take, per day. The numbers testing positive had increased from the 5% of June to 10% then 15% and up to 20% a few weeks ago. However in the last 2 weeks they have dropped back down to around 10%. This does not really reveal a huge amount as the numbers tested are not proportionate and we (the public) don't know who of those tested may be health workers, truck drivers, flight crew, contacts of those already positive, or just random people. However if it continues like this it might imply that basically there's a degree of herd immunity that has been achieved and thus in another couple of months we may have overcome the worst of it. 

Despite the lack of testing the number of deaths has not increase too much (around 5 per day give or take) and the hospitals are coping so far. Though we can presume there may be unreported COVID-19 deaths, it may not be thousands, so we can be fairly relieved. Have we been lucky because much of the population spend most of their time outside, that most are on rural farms, that most are young, most are healthy, and there are few overweight, diabetic etc or for some other reason? Maybe we'll find out some day.

Certainly most regular people have stopped wearing masks, or are not wearing them properly, and most of the handwashing stations seem to be barely used nowadays. The spacing on public buses isn't being followed so much any more, the restrictions on travelling outside of Nairobi or Mombasa (that were implemented for several weeks earlier in the year and may well have helped then in delaying the spread) have been stopped and there's more transport now -it employs many people and also facilitates more tourism. International flights restarted in August (domestic flights restarted in mid July) and a lot of the middle class have taken advantage, at least to restart domestic tourism. The evening curfew remains, which is to avoid too much drinking and partying that directly may cause rapid spreading, or indirectly reduce hospital admissions from traffic accidents or violence. By July all restaurants had reopened and up to 7pm or 8pm for sit-down meals (with some spacing etc). Thankfully many of the export commodities have recovered as the European and Asian markets have re-opened.

It was decided in July that schools which had remained closed since end of March would not re-open until January 2021 and all students, at least though in public schools, would be expected to repeat the entire school year. The thinking was that most students had already missed 4 months, which would be hard to catch up on, and that it would be very hard to implement social distancing and hygiene for the rest of the year (and the teachers who could be the most vulnerable would likely refuse to teach anyway). In theory there is some teaching ongoing through TV and radio broadcasts as well as videos online, but few students are benefitting.

Unfortunately keeping schools (and kindergartens) closed does make it harder for parents to go to work (many of the private kindergartens have re-opened, though probably illegal). For children in private schools, in order to charge fees and keep their teachers employed (since only the public school teachers are being paid for doing nothing), and which are quite important in Kenya with over a third of the population attending private schools (which range from the cheap to the expensive), there is some online video teaching going on. None-the-less some of the international families have packed off to another country for school-based learning for the rest of the year (this is the case for us - Andrea and the girls have been in Germany since mid-June and started in German schools last week).

On another note, it is incredible to think of the bigger picture of this year, from the debts racked up, the role of technology, the international disputes, the role of "experts" that were previously criticized so much in many countries recently, the strangeness of the unpredictability of the virus and live overall, the impact on relationships, education, social interactions, the positive impacts on the environment, the new thinking of health and hygiene, the incredible speed of vaccine development, and the recognition of vulnerable international supply chains especially of critical health goods. And so much more.... of course the media have reported on all these things for months now. We've all learned new words, new phrases, new rules (that keep changing) and it really is a "new normal" at least for this year.

Any next year, or whenever this is sort of over, what will the "new normal" be? Will retail, services, offices, tourism, education, healthcare, international relations and more besides have changed permanently? How are countries going to deal with debt, deal with economic recoveries, how long will there be pain for, what will the impact be on politics and institutions (especially in the US)? So many questions. So much time to discuss them!

Coronavirus Update #3

More than a month has passed since our last update and not a lot has been happening, so there is not much to be writing about! 

The situation in Kenya is slowly getting worse - when they test 1,000 people now they get about 40 cases (compared to 10 in April), and when they test 3,000 they get about 150 cases. If they tested 20,000 hey might be getting 1,000+ cases a day, but they aren't testing that many, and likely never will. So we can only presume and guess at the real numbers. 

In terms of deaths, there's usually a few each day; at least deaths that are known to be caused by COVID. I suppose other people might be dying and if they aren't tested before or after they die then no-one would know if they were positive or not. I've not seen any statistics (if they even exist) of total deaths in the last few months compared to the same period last year. 

I'm not sure what the strategy is. Cases are increasing, and deaths likely to. I suppose the more time it takes to peak, the more time there is to prepare hospitals, but there isn't a lot of money and so it's not like they'll ever be fully prepared (they've already had 5 months). Ultimately it may just be to try to balance the economy vs health until there is a vaccine or herd immunity. South Africa tried a lockdown, but once they lifted it (and it was one of the world's strictest lockdowns) cases started rocketing up again, so it didn't succeed in restricting the virus significantly like it did in Europe, and they couldn't keep the lockdown going much longer due to economic consequences (and the security challenges enforcing it). Obviously few people can work remotely in Africa since most people are in the informal economy, and few countries can support unemployment benefits or furloughing!

Actually there are some arguments that deaths might decrease with less drinking, less road accidents etc. There are other arguments though that people aren't going to hospitals even if they need to, and of course children aren't getting vaccinated etc, so that deaths might be higher, certainly in the medium term, even if not immediately so.

The economic impacts are of course incredibly severe for the poor and most Kenyans were poor even before the virus hit, often struggling day-to-day. The government has started employing hundreds of thousands of people in order to give them work and a salary (though it is a small salary) - they are sorting out roads, pavements, rubbish etc. There is also an enlarged cash transfer program to the very poor, but it's not a lot of money to not a lot of people, partly due to lack of funds and partly due to difficulty identifying those to support. 

A lot of NGOs have stepped in, especially on the hygiene side to provide soap, water, masks etc. Some are also providing food. Meanwhile restaurants have generally reopened for eating in for lunch, and the curfew (intended to stop people drinking in small bars) now starts later; restaurants might start serving dinner soon. This can help create a few more jobs, but still flights (domestic and international) are banned destroying tourism. Domestic road transport is also heavily restricted, which also normally employs a lot of people.

Now that Europe is beginning to open up, hopefully some export industries in agriculture and the flower industry may be able to re-start. Personally I think Kenya should look to reopen tourism as soon as possible, even if cases are increasing, with testing before and after, and carefully managed charter flights to very limited spaces with tight controls and testing around the staff etc (i.e. fly to airport, bus to hotel/beach or safari camp, stay there and don't go anywhere else, then repeat to leave the country). It is likely domestic tourism will be allowed again in a couple of weeks to start.

The education sector is one of the biggest employers, and a third of the schools are private. The majority of these are not doing any online learning, and are simply closed with their staff not being paid. The government has some education classes online and on TV/radio, though only about a third of the country are using them at all. Schools are likely to reopen in September. Most of the country will have lost 6 months of learning, whilst the inequality of rich kids with good private schools who did online learning will have increased compared to poor kids.

It's quite interesting being involved in some of these discussions with government and through industry associations. It's an interesting time generally; it really is a once in a generation or once in three generations period. It hopefully will not happen again soon! It hopefully will lead to some things being better than before, and it might lead to a better society, more environmentally friendly, more focused on preventing health issues than curing/treating them, and more focused on social relationships. The question of future jobs though is one to discuss in the next blog.

Coronavirus update #2

So 2 more weeks at home, though there was one short trip to the office and one morning at a government office. Otherwise it is a lot of phone calls, video calls, emails and the odd movement between living room, kitchen, balcony and bedroom. Not a lot of steps each day, aside from running in the morning, which for the last week or so (when it is not raining) has been whilst wearing a mask. Not a lot of excitement - though one day whilst running I came across a man convulsing on the floor with what looked like epilepsy. After a few minutes with me and another passerby he managed to get up and seemed alright, so I put him a taxi to get home with some money for food and drink.

In other dramatic news, we've increased our online purchasing locally which we didn't do too much of before, including of chairs, badminton sets and other kitchen appliances. We also bought a desk from the local artisans and have settled into the routine of the late afternoon walk and games with the kids downstairs (including getting out a boules set). OK, so there has not been much dramatic news!

On the schooling side there is a lot of conversations amongst parents of private schools (which went back to school a week ago, after the 3 weeks Easter break, whereas the public schools are on their holidays now and are supposed to go back in early May, though all schools remain closed until early June at the earliest) about the quality of the online learning. Before Easter parents were sympathetic as the schools had not had very long to prepare, but after Easter, it is another matter and the conversation of quality quickly leads to conversations of refunds. Andrea's doing a stoic job whilst the German School still gets their act together (with some prodding from the parents). Without any cleaners (we used to have one come a few times a week), and with us all around, all the time (including the dog), we are doing quite a lot of cleaning for the first time for quite a while! Very glad we have a small apartment.

In terms of the actual situation here, the testing has increased, and the numbers are fairly stable, increasing at an average of around 10 cases per day, whilst around 5 per day are recovering and turning negative again. There is still no more than 1,000 tests a day so it is not mass testing, but on the plus side there are not thousands of people turning up sick at hospitals, so even if there are more cases than then few hundred so far, it may not be that many (I suppose around 20% would normally turn up sick at hospital). Maybe the early interventions with flights and the obsessiveness with handwashing (even at the slums) have helped (with Africa generally being less connected to the world than other countries, so there were less travellers coming and out anyway at the beginning).

The government has extended the evening curfew and the restrictions on inter-City travel, but has also begun to relax some restrictions Restaurant's are now delivering in the evenings. Some restaurants may be allowed to open soon for sit-down guests with some hygiene and distance restrictions. The governments' finance Act has passed reducing some taxes, though unfortunately also increasing others. The government has launched a fundraising drive to help with the hospital preparations, PPE purchases, handwashing activities etc. A cash transfer program is starting, in order to help the very poor.

In reality it seems the economy just can't collapse as much as a European economy, even if there was a full lockdown. Partly because much of the population are farming in the villages, and would continue to do so anyway, and partly because a lot of people are barely earning that much anyway. Unfortunately some key industries that rely on exports (like flowers) have really suffered, through will hopefully pick up again as Europe opens up slowly. And some key industries that rely on imports (like tourism, importing people) have also suffered, so the economy is struggling and there is not a lot the government can do (few people are even in the formal economy that the government could support like in Europe). It might not even be possible to enforce a lockdown even if one was implemented, especially with the economic impacts.

The kids continue to handle things quite well overall, whilst us adults seem to be quite pessimistic or depressed. None-the-less, we're thankful we've not been too badly affected so far economically or health-wise. Frequent check-in with family members in Europe take place, and they are doing well too. Next weekend is a long holiday weekend (just like the long Easter weekend recently). It will likely be just like most other days, which just vary between working and not-working without much else changing! We did try to get into that big concert thing last weekend a little though it was hardly a big deal, a big evening in, or anything else. Not a lot of variety in life at the moment, but maybe that is not a bad thing? At least we're all spending a lot of quality time with family members, either in real life or on-line.

Life at home during Coronavirus

The kids have been at home now for four weeks since schools were closed. I've been at home for most of three weeks (after Europe I was in a separate apartment in Nairobi in self-isolation then one week of occasional work from home vs work from office whilst the government "encouraged working from home", and now two weeks at home since the government "strongly encouraged everyone to work from home"). Most of the time the kids have been in a sort of routine with home schooling by Andrea for 2-3 hours a day, and the rest of the time split between playing or watching TV/Computer Games. Home schooling involves some exercises set by the school and emailed, and other exercises Andrea makes up as the school doesn't send very much (and didn't send anything during Easter, but we've kept the schooling going during the holiday).

The house has had to undergo some renovations. Changes to desks for us to use. Times Table posters and star charts (i.e. you get stars once you finish tasks) stuck on walls, more plants in the house and on the balcony. Kids toys and rugs sometimes moved on the balcony. Tables set up with painting materials. Plenty of hand sanitizer and extra soap everywhere. We are pressing elevator buttons with our elbows and washing hands frequently for what it's worth.

Hannah likes to say that she is bored even though she is not bored. She only says she is bored because she wants to watch TV or play computer games. Actually she is perfectly happy playing with her horses, unicorns, farm and many many other toys together with her sister, Leah. Computer games may be better than TV, since TV seems to always have more episodes that kids can beg to watch!

The girls often play with their friends in the same apartment complex (technically in Nairobi there are few official restrictions on what you can do in the day, as long as you avoid large groups, you are just encouraged to stay at home, and many things are still open) which really helps. But they also like to play board games, or singing and dancing to videos, or building a house with blankets on top of chairs. 

When they do play downstairs there is an interesting variety of games. Some more physical ones, involving chase, tag and so on. Others more imaginative with role plays. The weather is warm, and when the sun is out it is very pleasant but the pool is mostly in the shade so the kids have only used it once. Leah is very strong willed so often has issues playing in the groups of friends if she doesn't get her way, which sometimes ends in tears. But Hannah also often ends up in tears for some reason or another. Especially later in the day when she is tired.

For me, there's a routine of taking the dog out, going for a run, having breakfast and then spending most of the day on the phone and on the computer moving between the bedroom, the kitchen table and the balcony. With occasional trips downstairs for a walk with the dog again; and then trying to find a couple of hours in the evenings with the kids to play. There's still work to do (some things are still the same as before, and there are some new things to replace other things that are on pause). Andrea usually manages to get a few hours of work in as well, which is not too bad, though obviously not as much as she'd like when the kids were at school.

So far Kenya has not had many cases; partly because Kenya was quite quick to quarantine people who flew in (and then banned flights altogether), and partly because they have only tested those who have turned up sick to hospitals, or those in quarantine (and their "contacts"). Next week there will be a lot more testing of regular people, so let's see how many other people may have the virus without being sick, and then we may know what will happen in May and how long we will stay in the current state.

The virus: reflections and philosophical musings

I've just watched the Chernobyl miniseries, which is excellent, and quite accurate (apparently). Watching it at this time is quite interesting. In that case, once the explosion happened there was not too much that could be done by the average person, just a lot of responsibility on a few people to get the situation under control within days and stop it becoming worse. So the rest of the world was just waiting and hoping. But then once it was under control, then everything was fine. It was kind of an all-or-nothing impact for most of the World.

The current virus couldn't be more different. It affects everyone directly or indirectly very dramatically, and the situation looks like it will go on for several weeks in the very best circumstances (which hopefully includes Kenya) and many months in most other circumstances (in most of the developed World). And yet there is something we can each do. 

If we lock ourselves up (if we can do that without starving or running out of money) then we can be protected. Our fate is in our own hands. And yet because of the nature of this virus, is our fate in our own hands? It may be as invisible as the radiation from Chernobyl, but at least the affects are much quicker. It may not be as deadly as radiation, but it is contagious (very highly so), and someone else could infect you without you really knowing, indeed we might already have been infected without knowing or getting sick. And even more strangely, we may be infecting other people without really knowing it (we may have done that a week or two ago before we started to "social distance").

It really is a once-in-a-century crisis, like a War, though thankfully one that we know how to stop, if people all followed instructions, and doesn't require such dramatic changes to our lives (if only everyone followed the instructions of an "invisible enemy" which is harder than the "visible enemy" in war). And it will have economic implications for a while, just like the Great Recession a decade or more ago. It is a shame. Just like the smallest thing could have prevented Chernobyl, some small and simple things with the virus could also have stopped everything--initially within China (in terms of addressing the virus earlier) and later with other countries who could have taken very dramatic actions in the short-term (i.e. banning all international incoming travel) which seemed bad at the time but would have been much better than the current situation (which we now know through hindsight).

It is strange not knowing what is going to happen... the uncertainty for most of the world seems unusual to me and hard to comprehend. Only the fact that our own fate is sort of in our own hands helps, and our family being fortunate enough to be able to handle the economic impacts. We think there is a roadmap to follow, though implementing that roadmap is very hard. And yet, it might not actually work.

I wonder what lessons the World will learn from this crisis. Certainly most of the World seems to have a lot of time on their hands to reflect anyway (on different political systems; on the importance of communication; on the importance of following guidance; on the value of preparation and preparedness amongst others). I suppose the helplessness of everything--the invisible nature of the virus; the speed at which it moves; the lack of a vaccine or any good medication; the fact that it basically affects everyone (though i suppose if you are wealthy it is easier to self-isolate, and if you are young/healthy you may not be affected even if infected). This sense of helplessness seems to be the most intriguing thing to me. And just like a decade ago, there is not much one can do when an economy is collapsing. 

The flip side of helplessness? Valuing what you have and doing the things that you can do in other ways. Families and friendships; freedom of movement. As is so often said, you often only miss them when you don't have them. We all need to appreciate what we have more and live for today because you don't know what the future will hold.

Kenya's response to COVID-19 - early and successful, so far...

So Kenya seems to be remaining at around 7 cases so far; it was fairly quick to limit restrictions on incoming travelers as well as domestic movement (unlike some European countries). Some people here thought it was all a bit dramatic and drastic action to have taken without it being a serious issue, but of course now, 1 week since the majority of those more severe restrictions came into place (some earlier ones were already there a few weeks ago), it is clear that it is very important to take action earlier rather than later; and if Kenya can continue for a few weeks or even months in this current state of distancing but not lockdown then the economic damage might be somewhat limited, and the health damage definitely limited. There is no chance that Kenya could handle much more than a few hundred severe cases to be honest, as is likely the same with most developing countries.

This current state is that there should be no large gatherings, people should keep there distance as much as possible, and not travel as much as possible (which includes working remotely if possible). But restaurants are still open, so are bars until 7.30 (people are supposed to keep their distance inside), transport continues to run (though now occupancy levels are limited to allow more space between people), people can still go in and out of houses and move around if they want. Of course anyone coming into the country (and only Kenyan citizens or foreigners with work permits, which means no tourists, can come in) must self-isolate for 14 days (as i have been doing since i arrived 12 days ago, which was before the government policy but was already a company policy) and there is all the usual stuff about handwashing etc.

It has been interesting to see how people and companies seem to be rallying around so far, coordinating efforts and it has been impressive. Even the government's actions have been fast and relatively efficient (i think the airport finally got serious though it did take a few days) though they haven't had to do too much yet to be honest; mostly just make announcements and communicate the above actions. They have been improving medical facilities and supplies, but certainly not very dramatically compared to western countries, and there are some glaring gaps. The main one being that they have only today starting doing testing on random people (rather than those who come to hospital sick) which is necessary as some people might not get sick so no-one knows if they are carrying the virus, and others may be sick but not go to hospital (fearing the direct cost or opportunity cost of not working). It seems the reason for this has been lack of tests and the costs of tests. Even getting test results seems to take a day or two!

The government has tried to take some other actions to cushion the economic costs of this current state, but it is difficult. They don't have much money, and even if they did, there are not many good (or fast) mechanisms for them to support businesses, let alone individuals. And the majority of the country are either self-employed (including farmers) or working in the informal economy. So they don't pay taxes and don't really exist in any welfare systems. So even if one wanted to help them proactively it is hard. The best one can do is try not to have to go into a total lockdown, and of course try to keep things working, like transport, supply chains and logistics etc.

Lots of endless WhatsApp messages of course which are mostly a distraction or not that relevant; often because of the various industry groups I am in where people discuss responses, coordination and share ideas, as well as latest news and activities. And it gets a bit much sometimes. Still better to communicate too much and be over-prepared I suppose than not; and so far that is the case.

The main challenge is making people keep to the self-isolation requirements (one person who was positive and in hospital even managed to escape the hospital for a few hours so of course all the people that the person came into contact with have to be traced and tested); but if the number of cases inside the country can be fairly few, and restrictions kept up on those travelling in, it might be possible to allow more and more economic activity amongst the informal sector before those people who are already very poor start to suffer major consequences. Here's hoping....

Self-isolation and the virus in Kenya

After a short business trip to Paris and London at the beginning of March I returned to Kenya to spend 14 days in self-isolation just in case.... (Kenya had no cases when I returned though has since reported 1 case). Food is being delivered... 8.30am breakfast, 12.30pm lunch, 6.30 pm dinner. My working days basically resolves sitting at a desk all day, occasionally getting up to get water, go the balcony for some fresh air (unfortunately no sunshine, since the balcony is in the shade) or move position. Much of the day is spent on the phone as well. In the evenings I try to move 2m away to the sofa to read or watch TV and not work all day. 

I'm getting a good night sleep each night since there is no time wasted commuting, no time spend having to prepare any food, no time even having to sort any kids out! Yesterday I finally decided i need to do some exercise and have been doing the 7-minute workout two or three times each day. It's surprisingly good actually.

7 days since I left Europe I feel perfectly fine, but will do the second week before rejoining my family and returning to the office. The office has taken insane precautions--I guess Huawei has experienced the worst of it in China already and is applying those lessons here. 

Its strange that Kenya has had so few cases; and it is possible the hot, dry, weather has helped. There is not so many people arriving from countries with the disease anyway (compared to other countries, Kenya only really has one major airport and around 2 flights per day from each major city in Europe, with less from Asia, though more from the big middle eastern airports). It is likely that limited testing means there are more people with the virus going undetected, so maybe in a week or two the numbers of people who actually get tested in hospital will jump. 

The country has taken preventative measures by banning public events and wants all visitors into the country to self-isolate (like I am doing), though I don't think they are enforcing that but they definitely should (having said that I suppose almost all international travel has basically stopped now anyway)!. Maybe if Europe can get control of the crisis in the next 4 weeks, and if Kenya can keep the cases down in that time, things might be much easier. Of course, if Europe can't control it for a few months it will be even harder to stop if spreading here.

The economic consequences in Kenya will mostly be from the tourism and conferences industries which are significant. Of course a general slow-down will happen from lower trade, but once countries enter a full lock-down then i suppose economically things get really bad. Hopefully that won't happen here, but the next week might be critical. If there really are few other cases in the country reported by next weekend, and that the identified case hadn't spread it too far, and if Europe begins to take control, then we might be ok... fingers crossed!

Having said that Rwanda is taking no chances. After their first case, they immediately closed all schools and offices. It should work in preventing the virus but it will of course come at an economic cost, and how long will they have to keep them shut for? Maybe it is the smart thing; maybe Kenya should do the same, but the economies here are very fragile, government's already indebted. 

Then again the healthcare system is also very fragile, and would really have no chance of dealing with a full-blown pandemic like Italy. A lot of debates happening in Kenya about which route do go down. Indeed the UK seems to have initially decided not to be too dramatic but may rapidly change course in the next couple of days.

Some Kenyans also feel that trust in government is low, infrastructure is poor, culturally people can't stop socialising and mixing, and that a shut-down might not work very well anyway. Remember of course that very few people buy food from supermarkets, just local markets or their own farms; that very few people are in the formal economy/employment and certainly can't work from home (though ironically a large percent are already unemployed or under-employed; but not being able to earn whatever little they do earn would of course have catastrophic impacts and there are not very good safety net systems). 

Meanwhile communication to the public is not that good, a lot of misinformation is spreading, there was some minor panic shopping on Friday, and throughout all of it, since I am shut inside I can't tell what is really happening... on the streets, with transport, with shops. I just know it will slow down my work a lot, even once I am back in the office, as a lot resolves around various events of which several were planned for the next couple of months (and presumably won't take place), which will just be frustrating.

Times are very interesting indeed.

Extracurricular activities for kids...and a puppy!

In January it was yet another birthday party - this time Hannah's. Incredible that she is 8 already and soon will be in double figures. That means more homework, it also means being more serious about things - like how to manage being under pressure when the class took a small Maths test, or decision on investing in kids hobbies -- and whether they should become serious at them or not?

Both kids have done bits and pieces of different sports and other extracurricular activities over the years, partly since school offers 4 different options each week, and every semester you change the options, so there's been ballet, zumba, cooking, athletics, football, singing, storytelling, gymnastics, recorder and lots of swimming. We also have done the odd extra activity; for a while there was some ballet and tap dancing, another time there was gymnastics. Since we've been in Kenya there's been tennis Sunday mornings and the last year or so has been horse riding.

The kids enjoy tennis and are improving slowly, which is good. The coach is good at making the practice entertaining and mixing up different activities. Horse riding continues, though I can't tell at what stage the kids are at. They still enjoy it and have to do a lot of cleaning out of the stables and cleaning the horses which is important. There's always a lot of art, especially for Leah still in kindergarten, as well as after tennis in Karura Forest, and often at home or even in the car. It's almost the opposite to horse riding as you can do it anywhere, any time even for just a few minutes with almost any materials for almost no cost!

Leah has now worked out how to swim, not really with many lessons, but after swimming so much she's just sort of worked it out; some lessons should be helpful now to improve her technique. Hannah has been in the school swim team since last year which means swimming 2 or 3 times a week, which recently has been becoming a bit much for her and she's always that keen. We've taken her to a few competitive events which are quite a performance as you wait around for hours, until the race which lasts a few minutes. She won one last year where she was the oldest in her age, but this year once she was in a different age category and was the youngest she struggled. We'll see if we continue to go, investing so much time in it or not.

Probably the main area we've not done much in is music and this may be something we should do more of. Hannah liked her recorder lessons, and wanted to do guitar this year too! So to the question of how much time (and money) parents should invest for these activities, how many different activities kids should do (vs just playing or sleeping etc), and then whether to focus on fewer activities and get good at them or try lots, and when to stop all the trying and focus? Who knows the answer, but I think we'll be seeking these answers in the next couple of years.

This most recent birthday party was quite simple, without any bouncy castles or swimming pools; just games and the now common sleepover after the cake. Sleepovers are a very frequent request nowadays!

In late January we had a break-in which was somewhat disturbing. One of the results was getting a puppy, who is very much a puppy. Lots of craziness usually related to biting and chewing everything and everyone. Another result was me changing my passport again, and Andrea having to replace her computer and deciding against a Mac for the first time in her life (I think she quite likes the touch-screen aspect of her windows laptop).

In other news the alternator on our car that has had problems for a while finally died and with it the car stopped moving, which I didn't know could happen, and was surprised at! Thankfully we seemed to get lucky finding a nice tow truck man, who then recommended a nice mechanic who seems to have got a new alternator for a decent price... but i suppose we'll only know in a few weeks from now if everything is still working!